SWVA gas price spike predicted by end of Sunday

As if the 42 cent in the average price per gallon of regular unleaded gas since December 30, 2011 hasn't been bad enough, one gas price tracking agency forecasts a spike by the end of this coming weekend.

GasBuddy.com sent out an e-mail this afternoon (Wednesday), in which its analysts predicts a price surge of between 5-20 cents per gallon by the end of Sunday.  The reasoning behind this painful prediction for your wallet: A refinery fire in Washington state.

Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy.com senior petroleum analyst, says prices are already going up across the West Coast region, as well as the Great Lakes region.  Some places in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky have seen price spikes of between 30-45 cents per gallon today.

"With the refinery fire, motorists should expect prices to rise in similar fashion as last February when the Libyan situation unfolded," wrote petroleum analyst Gregg Laskoski.

AAA Mid-Atlantic sent out its own e-mail concerned about soaring gas prices earlier Wednesday.  The consumer group noted that today's (Wednesday's) Virginia average gas price $3.55, is just three cents shy of the national average.

"There have only been two times in approximately a decade when the average gas price in Virginia has been even close to the national average, and those were due to extreme circumstances," wrote Martha M. Meade, Manager of Public and Government Affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic.  Those two times being when hurricane Katrina and Rita hit the gulf coast in 2005, and in 2006 when the federal government mandated that gas companies switch from the gas additive MBTE to ethanol, according to Meade.

About why Virginia prices are much higher currently, Meade cited the closing of refineries on the East Coast which supply gas to Virginia, as well as where Virginia's source of crude oil comes from (Brent crude from Europe, which is $20 more expensive than West Texas Intermediate (WTI)).

AAA gas prices tracker for Wednesday, February 22, 2012:

• Roanoke region average: $3.57
• Virginia average: $3.55
• National average: $3.58

"Prices may break Virginia's record of $4.01 sometime between Memorial Day and July 4th," Meade cautioned.  "The good news, however, is that those prices will not likely hold for an extended period of time as motorists are expected to change their buying habits when rates reach the four dollar threshold."