Incumbent senators jockey for position in newly drawn districts

When the Virginia Senate’s majority Democrats cut Lynchburg in half in the redistricting process and extended Sen. Steve Newman’s 23rd District to the West Virginia border, they set in motion a musical-chairs response among incumbent senators.

Four senators are vying for three seats in next fall’s elections, with control of the Senate being the ultimate prize and Gov. Bob McDonnell fully engaged in the fight.

These may not be the races Democrats envisioned a month ago when they put Newman and Sen. Ralph Smith, R-Botetourt County, in the same district.

Smith said last week he will move to Roanoke County and run for election in the 19th Senate District, leaving Newman a thus-far-unobstructed path to re-election in the 23rd.

Sen. Bill Stanley, R-Franklin County, said he will move a few miles south into the 20th District and challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Roscoe Reynolds of Henry County.

Stanley’s move, which takes him out of the newly drawn and Republican-leaning 19^th District, clears the way for Smith to run in Roanoke-area territory where most voters already know him as the city’s former mayor.

These maneuvers figure to make the Reynolds-Stanley race one of the marquee contests in November as Republicans seek to gain three seats in the Senate and reclaim majority status from the Democrats.

McDonnell already has endorsed Stanley.

“The good news is that the governor is completely, utterly and fully engaged in all of the competitive races,” Newman said.

“He is committed to raising a lot of money to assist people who want a more conservative, limited government,” Newman said.

Stanley and Reynolds probably will need to raise more than $500,000 each for their campaigns, Newman said.

Five network-affiliated TV stations – in Roanoke, Lynchburg and Winston-Salem, N.C. – broadcast into the 22^nd District, virtually assuring that the candidates’ names will become well-known by November.

Stanley made what Newman described as “a bold move” in deciding to run in the Southside Virginia district, which was redrawn to make it more Democrat-friendly.

The Virginia Public Access Project rates the new 20^th District, which includes the cities of Martinsville and Danville, as strengthening its likely Democratic vote by 7 percentage points. Localities in the district gave 60 percent of their votes to McDonnell in the 2009 election, and gave Barack Obama a 1 percent margin in 2008.

Newman said the district “leans Republican.”

“It is a district that a Republican and a conservative could win,” Newman said. “But anytime that you decide to take on a long-entrenched incumbent, it is an uphill battle,” Newman said.

Reynolds has been in the Senate 14 years, and is a leader in its Democratic caucus. He was in the House of Delegates for 10 years.

“Bill will have my full support,” Newman said.