Va. GOP has edge down the ballot

Virginia’s Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general hold sizable leads over their Democratic opponents, but large swaths of voters remain undecided, a Mason-Dixon poll shows.

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who is seeking re-election, led Democrat Jody Wagner 44 percent to 31 percent, with 25 percent undecided, in the survey conducted Tuesday to Thursday by Mason Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

In the contest for attorney general, state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax, led Del. Steve Shannon, D-Fairfax, 37 percent to 30 percent, but 33 percent were undecided.

The large percentage of uncommitted voters reflects that the electorate, which is focused on the gubernatorial contest, has paid less attention to the down-ticket races.

Aside from Bolling, the down-ticket candidates are not nearly as well-known as the candidates for governor. Nearly three weeks before the election, 43 percent said they don’t recognize the names of Wagner or Cuccinelli, and 48 percent don’t recognize Shannon’s name.

“From a political standpoint, Bolling appears to be as popular as he was four years ago when he was initially elected,” said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of the polling firm.

“It will be difficult for Wagner to close the 13-point margin given the current political climate.”

The contest for attorney general “potentially could become more competitive” given that each candidate is known by a little more than half of the state’s voters, and that so many voters have not made up their minds, Coker said.

“Still, Cuccinelli is holding his own in Democrat-leaning Northern Virginia, where both candidates come from, and is well-positioned to benefit from the coattails of GOP favorites (Bob) McDonnell (the nominee for governor) and Bolling,” Coker said.

Bolling leads Wagner, a lawyer and former state treasurer and secretary of finance, in every region of the state except for Northern Virginia, where the candidates are tied with 38 percent of the vote.

Bolling leads by 8 percentage points in Hampton Roads, even though Wagner lives and runs a gourmet popcorn shop in Virginia Beach and spent 18 years working for a Norfolk law firm.

Bolling, a state senator from Hanover County before his 2005 election as lieutenant governor, leads among men by 22 percentage points, among women by 4 percentage points and among independents by 16 percentage points.

Cuccinelli leads in four regions and trails Shannon narrowly in Northern Virginia and in Hampton Roads. The Republican leads by 9 percentage points among independents, but a whopping 41 percent of independents are undecided.

Mason-Dixon surveyed 625 likely voters statewide by telephone from Tuesday through Thursday. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

w Cain is a staff writer for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.