What does divide over Perriello portend for his political future?

What do the huge gains for GOP candidates seen on Election Day foreshadow for the 2010 re-election chances of U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Ivy?

Depends who you ask.

Perriello - who unseated Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr., R-Rocky Mount, by a scant 727 votes in 2008 - is widely anticipated to be atop the national Republican Party’s list of targets in next year’s mid-term congressional races.

Republicans note that GOP gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell carried Perriello’s district with an overwhelming 61.4 percent. Two of the district’s GOP incumbents for the House of Delegates - Rob Bell of Albemarle County and Danny Marshall of Danville - crushed their opponents on Nov. 3, though their challengers spent well more than $100,000.

“I think it’s clear that Tuesday’s results bode very poorly for Tom Perriello’s ability to hold on to his seat,“ said Andy Seré, a regional press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “It was nothing less than a rebuke of the big government agenda coming out of Washington. Tom Perriello is pretty much in lockstep with that agenda.“

Democrats, meanwhile, say that constituents of the 5th District - which stretches from the Charlottesville area down to Danville - are impressed with Perriello’s hard-working approach on issues such as the economy, health care and clean energy.

“No member of Congress works harder or is more in touch with their district than Tom Perriello,“ said Jesse Ferguson, southern regional press secretary of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “He is standing up for veterans and fighting hard for middle class families.“

The divide over Perriello’s performance could be seen outside his office Tuesday, with some rallying to protest Perriello’s vote for the Affordable Health Care for America Act and others turning out to thank him.

Democrats say that the crowded field of Republicans vying to win their party’s nomination to challenge Perriello may be shaping up to resemble last week’s special election in the 23rd District of New York, in which the Republican nominee was viewed as too moderate and a more conservative third party candidate arose. On Election Day, the Democrat won in the traditionally Republican stronghold.

So far, six GOP candidates have announced their intention to seek their party’s nomination to go up against Perriello.

Yet a seventh candidate - Bradley S. Rees of Bedford County - has dropped out of the Republican primary and launched a third party bid on the Virginia Conservative Party ticket. Rees made his decision out of disappointment with the likely frontrunners in the GOP primary race.

“It may amount to only drawing enough votes from the Republican candidate to ensure Tom Perriello a second term,“ Rees said as he made his announcement on Oct. 29. “If so, so be it. Maybe then, the party will understand that we are trying to save the GOP from its worst enemy: not the Democrats, but themselves.“

Fred Hudson, chairman of the 5th District Democratic Committee, said the GOP’s inner-party divisions can only help Perriello next year.

“The more divisions they have and the more people they have in their primary race, the better it’ll be for Tom Perriello,“ Hudson said.

The national Republican Party has gotten behind the primary candidacy of state Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham, pointing out that he has a proven ability to win elections that cover large portions of the district’s southern half.

Among the 5th District’s conservative rank-and-file, however, Hurt is not necessarily the favored candidate.

Bill Hay, chairman of the Jefferson Area Tea Party, announced Friday that he is endorsing Albemarle County real estate investor Laurence Verga in the GOP primary. Hay, a Greene County resident, said grassroots conservatives in the district dislike certain aspects of Hurt’s record, most notably his 2004 vote in favor of then-Gov. Mark R. Warner’s $1.4 billion package to increase the sales tax and lower certain other taxes.

Hay said he is “disturbed” that the national GOP, as opposed to local conservative activists, seems to be trying to choose the 5th District nominee.

“If they don’t give the people the chance to make their own decision, they’re not going to get the support of the people in the fall,“ Hay said. “And Perriello will end up winning.“

The Hill, a newspaper that covers Congress, has listed Hurt’s vote in favor of the 2004 tax package as the GOP’s No. 7 conservative conundrum of 2010.

Hurt did not return a call for comment. Seré defended Hurt, saying he is a solid conservative who has a pro-business record of supporting lower taxes.

“It’s clear that throughout Sen. Hurt’s near decade of public service, he’s compiled a strong conservative record,“ Seré said. “That’s the kind of record a candidate needs to beat Tom Perriello.“

Perriello also did not return a call for comment. He was not at his office Tuesday.

Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said there are a number of factors that will determine Perriello’s re-election chances next year but the economy is by far the biggest.

“Virginia is correctly viewed as one of the largest, most important swing states - a competitive ‘purple’ state that will go back and forth between the parties depending on the circumstances and candidates,“ Sabato said. “Just like 2009 was poles apart from 2008, so too can 2010 be dissimilar from 2009. Everything will depend on the state of the economy next November, President Obama’s level of popularity, the identity of the Republican opponent to Tom Perriello, and possibly some ‘X’ factors like Afghanistan and health care reform.“

It is too soon to tell, Sabato said, if divisions among conservative activists will play a role. It also remains to be seen, he said, if Perriello will be able to motivate Obama’s supporters, which it appears Democratic gubernatorial nominee Sen. R. Creigh Deeds failed to do.

“Midterm elections almost always result in the out-of-power party picking up House seats, maybe a substantial number. Perriello has been on the GOP’s target list from the day he won his ‘08 squeaker,“ Sabato said. “The 5th District overall is still Republican territory. Perriello won’t be getting a day’s rest for the next year because he has a tough task in front of him.

“But let’s remember he has all the powers of incumbency, a large staff, an ample treasury and a united party. Republicans are the ones who have to figure out how to pick a strong nominee and not split asunder in the process. Also, the two party candidates will have to generate their own turnout since there is no statewide contest on the Virginia ballot in 2010.“