N.C. data: Swine flu already rivaling seasonal flu

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina is already seeing one of the most active flu seasons in recent record keeping, an early indication of how widespread the swine flu pandemic could become.

Dr. Zack Moore, a respiratory disease epidemiologist for the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, said officials were prepared for a spike in flu cases but were surprised at how quickly the numbers climbed. The number of reported flulike patients has spiked since the beginning of the school year.

“You don’t like to see a curve going up that steeply,“ Moore said.

For three consecutive weeks, health providers have been reporting that more than 5 percent of patients have influenza-like symptoms. Those figures rival the peak of other flu seasons during this decade.

During the week ending Sept. 12, nearly 7 percent of people who sought care at facilities in the health reporting network had flulike illnesses, defined as a fever of at least 100 degrees along with a cough or sore throat. That was up from less than 2 percent just two weeks prior. Of available figures dating back to 2001, only one other week recorded a higher percentage of sick patients — a week in December 2003 at the height of that winter’s exhausting flu seasons.

North Carolina is asking clinicians to submit samples of flu cases only when the patient requires intensive care, a push that allows the state lab to focus on the critical issues. The state had previously gathered samples for all people that were hospitalized.

Most of the flu cases confirmed in lab tests have been the swine flu, according to the state.

The flu problem appears to be radiating out of the South with the start of the school year. Now, nearly half of states have “widespread” flu activity, according to the CDC.

Moore said the flu is difficult to predict, and health officials aren’t sure whether flu reporting levels are going to stay elevated or whether the data shows a temporary peak. The seasonal flu typically peaks during the middle of winter.

“It’s not unexpected,“ Moore said. “We are in a pandemic.“

Health officials are preparing to distribute a swine flu vaccine in the coming months, first targeting health workers and high-risk groups such as young children and pregnant women. Officials have also said that many people will do well without the vaccine, noting that most people infected have mild illness and recover by themselves.