A tale of two campaigns

Tom Perriello is doing a lot of things to win a seat in Congress this year. But will the voters reward Perriello in November?

Perriello is a Democrat running against U.S. Virgil Goode, R-5th, and this year his campaign has:

 

• aggressively challenged every vote and statement Goode has made;

• raised more money than Goode;

• aired advertisements on Christian radio stations in the 5th District;

• placed his signs out before Goode;

• developed a unique tithing system for his campaign workers;

• sent out volunteers armed information about his candidacy and voter registration materials; and

• opened a campaign office in Danville.

By contrast, Goode has run a classic incumbent’s campaign. While he has responded to Perriello’s attacks, Goode hasn’t gone out of his way to campaign against his Democratic challenger.

Why should he? Goode has name recognition, a long public record, a well-run constituent service program and a mostly rural, Republican-leaning district that’s suited for him.

Al Weed, who ran against Goode twice, was able to hold him to under 60 percent of the vote in 2006 — the only time that’s ever happened to Goode. Weed’s 39.9 percent vote total was held down by the marriage amendment on the ballot, but pushed up by the Democratic wave that gave the party control of Congress.

Where does this leave Perriello?

With four months to go, Congressional Quarterly, the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have changed their rating of the 5th District race from a “safe” win for Goode to a “likely” victory.  That’s a change in Perriello’s direction of exactly one notch.

“In this case, the Democrat is raising a lot of money and has strong national party support (both pluses), while he has never held any public office and is unknown in much of the district (both minuses),” University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said. “An upset cannot be ruled out, but the incumbent is given the edge in this set of circumstances. The size of the edge is yet to be determined. I think this probably summarizes all the ratings, no matter the source.”

Anything’s possibly, but for all of Perriello’s work, he will need some help from his fellow Democrats. While his party has a strong Senate candidate in Mark Warner, it’s unknown how voters in Virginia — and around the nation — will react to Barack Obama’s candidacy. But strong upper ticket campaigns could bring out Perriello’s voters and discourage Goode’s voters.

As we enter the dog days of summer, Perriello has already run a more aggressive campaign than Goode. But Perriello will have to wait until the leaves change to know whether that will be enough.