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Follow us on TwitterGoode’s lead slips in 5th District race
Register & Bee staff writer
Published: October 8, 2008
Updated: October 9, 2008
Despite a significant gain by his Democratic challenger Tom Perriello, incumbent Congressman Virgil Goode remains ahead in the most recent poll of the 5th District congressional race.
A Survey USA poll released Tuesday shows that 55 percent of likely 5th District voters support their incumbent congressman versus 42 percent who support placing a new man in Washington.
Goode, R-5th, said Wednesday he was pleased to be up by 13 points at this late date in the campaign.
“As you know, polls don’t vote and I am urging my supporters to redouble their efforts,” he said, “and we’re working hard every day between now and election.”
While Goode holds a comfortable lead, just over half of the people who said they would vote for him also reported they might change their minds before Election Day.
The poll, conducted Oct. 6–7, breaks down a variety of demographic categories and shows that Goode leads by 17 points among men and 11 among women. He holds a strong 89 percent of Republican votes, about constant from the last poll published in mid-August. Perriello claimed 85 percent of Democratic voters, up nearly 20 points since the last poll.
Perriello has more than halved the gap between himself and Goode in the new poll. In August, he trailed the six-term congressman by 34 percentage points, earning support from 30 percent of likely voters.
Voters under 50 prefer Goode by 4 points, down from 33 points since August. The poll indicates that independent voters opt for Goode by a 2-to-1 margin and only 3 percent of the electorate is undecided.
“The reason we are gaining support is because Tom Perriello is offering real solutions on the economy, gas prices, and health care, when all we’ve seen from Congressman Goode is lies, false attacks and ducking debates,” Jessica Barba, Perriello’s communications director, said in a written statement.
The campaign has heated up over the past few weeks with the incumbent congressman launching a controversial negative attack ad against Perriello and canceling a televised debate.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Goode will likely stay in his seat after the Nov. 4 election, but it’s going to be a tough race.
He said it’s a tough year for Republicans across the country, alluding to the financial meltdown and the loss of momentum by the John McCain and Sarah Palin presidential ticket.
“The ‘R’ has become a scarlet letter in 2008, just as it was in 2006,” Sabato said, “but let’s remember that Goode won in 2006.”
Sabato conceded that there are always upsets on election night, but doesn’t think this year’s 5th District race will be one of them.
“Everyone said that this would probably be Goode’s toughest race since he was elected and I think it will be closer, but he’s still the favorite,” Sabato said.
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Here is why Goode’s lead is failing. The GOP has spread so many lies, they now believe them to be the truth.
“With so much at stake, and time running short, [Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeff] Frederick did not feel he had the luxury of subtlety. He climbed atop a folding chair to give 30 campaign volunteers who were about to go canvassing door to door their talking points - for instance, the connection between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden: “Both have friends that bombed the Pentagon,“ he said. “That is scary.“ It is also not exactly true - though that distorted reference to Obama’s controversial association with William Ayers, a former 60s radical, was enough to get the volunteers stoked. “And he won’t salute the flag,“ one woman added, repeating another myth about Obama. She was quickly topped by a man who called out, “We don’t even know where Senator Obama was really born.“ Actually, we do; it’s Hawaii”.
jimmystick, as I said I am with those who try to help the uneducated.
When Mark said, “I want to spend more time with my family” I have no reason not believe him, since Presidents have to give up more of their time then Senators. Oh, I had 50 “Warner for President 08” which I gave away, so I was disappointed also.
“I will stand with the muslims….“Obama wants you to believe he is Christian but look at the church he was at some real Christian values there. Perriello wants you to believe that he is something special but the same old socialist rethoric. Warner not as bad as the other two but what made him NOT run for President? What skeleton did Hilliary find to keep him out. He could have won. I might have been willing to vote for him. About the same as McCain just not as old.
Sounds like you are really fed up with politics? I will do as I normally do. Pick the candidate that has my values and believes in Christ words to help the poor and under educated. Which is Obama, Warner, Perriello. Then I have to wait 2, 4, 6 years to examine my past vote.
David, You are right there will not be a SS increase this year, but the other news is Medicare premuin will not rise either. Do not understand the blaming Democrats for refineries? As far as I know oil refineries are owned by the oil companies, not Democrats. Tell me though why do they send 1.7 million gallons of gasoline to Iran and other countries if we do not have enough. Isn’t that creating a supply and demand problem? Also do not blame no new refineries as the problem. They have been upgrading plants to keep up with the demand and another 7.2 million gasolines of capacity will becoming on line soon. Yes we are in hard times and need a change. Putting Goode who is part of the problem back in, certainly will not change anything, so I am voting for all newcomers I can. But we only have 1 Congressman out of 435 that we can vote on. I am doing my part for a change. What are you going to do? I hope you will vote for change since this is the best we can do this year.
David, since I am 72 on SS and a fix pension and I do not plan to get a job, my wages will not increase. But under Goode, Bush, Cheney I am now paying $3.49 a gallon for gas along with all the price increases because of high fuel costs. Before Goode backed B & C; I was paying $1.34 a gallon. Since I am in Nelson County my gasoline bill has gone from about $110.00 a month to around $370.00 a month. I believe under Perriello, Warner, Obama I will see relief in that area. Back when I was working I could leave a $50K job one day and start a $50K job the next day. Try that in today’s atmosphere. That is what has happened under the Goode, Cheney, Bush watch. I can never understand how any working individual could cut off their nose to spite their face and vote for the likes of Goode, Bush, Cheney. Even business prospers more under a Democratic rule, so I have a hard time figuring out how anyone in an honest business can back the Republican thinking and the likes of Goode. At one time the Republican Party was a good party that kept the extreme Liberals in check. Now the majority are only thinking of money, greed and power. When Goode runs an AD with Perriello and a beard after returning from Afganistran it shows what a low life Virgil has become. Afganistan, where in order to fit in an individual who wants to communicate with the males of that nation, one has to grow a beard.
Virgil; Voted to protect $18 billion in subsidies for Big Oil. That’s $170 for each family in Virginia at a time when those same families are paying $1,480 more a year for gasoline, compared to 2001.
Virgil; Voted against clean energy policies that could reduce our dependence on oil. In 2007, the top five oil companies earned as much in profits as it would take 2.9 million Virginians to earn in a year.
To break the grip of Big Oil, Virginians have a clear choice this November. Tom Perriello will fight for Virginia and against Big Oil to bring America to a cleaner, more secure energy future. Be American; Vote Perriello
It will not be too much longer and all will know if the 5th gets true leadership or if certain parts of the 5th have to wait till redistricting to move into the 21st Century and the other half will be stuck in the 20th Century with Goode.
I think a change is needed!
Goode will still win by 65% or better. I am not sure but 55% is enough. I hope that Perriello will move to NY or SanFrancisco where he would be better liked and accepted.
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