Thanksgiving travel numbers inch upward

After dismal Thanksgiving travel numbers last year, the industry seems to be recovering a bit.

Nationally, more than 38 million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more away from home over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which is a 1.4 percent increase over last year, according to AAA projections.

Virginia is faring better with an increase of 3 percent projected, or 1.5 million Virginians traveling 50 or more miles away from home.

“The travel industry seems to be evening out,” Windy VanCuren, spokesperson for AAA Mid-Atlantic, said Monday. “Different states have different averages, but Virginia stays fairly stable.”

Nationally, 86 percent of Thanksgiving vacationers are expected to travel by automobile, while only six percent say they will go by air; in the commonwealth, 84 percent will travel by car and 6.6 percent will go by air.

Linda Sizemore, president and owner of The Travel Center, said Monday she thinks that prediction of the increase is “pretty accurate.”

“We have lots of people flying to New York and to Las Vegas,” she said. “Most people going to see Grandma and Grandpa are driving.”

Although she said that her company has had one of the best years ever the past year during the recession, she has heard from other agencies that the travel industry as a whole seems to be bouncing back.

Gary Beyer, owner of Holiday Travel Service, said their travel business has had a “very solid” third and fourth quarter so far with their Thanksgiving business up from last year.

“It could be the competitive (air) fares that were available if you booked ahead,” he said.

Carley Douglas, a travel agent with A-1 Travel, believes that ticket sales for Thanksgiving have been down.

“This year we have done fewer airline tickets for Thanksgiving travel,” she said. “It’s been the fewest number of tickets for Thanksgiving we have sold for the 18 years I have been doing this.”

Airline ticket sales are looking good for Christmas, though, and not just to visit family but for family vacations.

For herself, she decided to just make the nine-hour drive up to the New York metro area for Thanksgiving than deal with the hassles and delays of air flight.

“The airlines have cut out so many flights that we are more sardined than ever in planes,” she observed.

Driving up, flying down

According to AAA, 972,000 Virginians will be hitting the highways in cars, which will be a 3 percent increase over last year. Nationally, 33.2 million people will travel by car, which is an increase of 2.1 percent over last year.

The number of air travelers in Virginia is expecting to decrease 6 percent to 76,000 Virginians. Nationally, the decline is projected to be slightly higher at 6.7 percent.

Travel by other means, including trains, watercraft, buses and multiple modes of transportation is expected to increase 1.2 percent to 2.9 million nationally with Virginia’s increase of travel by other means expected to increase 4 percent or about 106,000 travelers, according to AAA.

Of course, these projected increases are added to the 25.2 percent drop in Thanksgiving travel last year that reflected the housing and financial crises. AAA credits this year’s increase to “improved consumer confidence from one year ago, better financial market performance and a growing sense among many consumers that the worst of the global economic crisis is behind us.”

“Although far too many Americans remain unemployed or under other financial stress, AAA’s projected increase in Thanksgiving travel from one year ago is another hopeful sign that economic conditions are stabilizing and im-proving in some areas,” said Martha Meade, manager of public and government affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic, in the release. “We can also be thankful the gradual recovery we have been seeing in the U.S. travel industry since the start of the summer is continuing.”

Decade-long slide

The decrease in the number of air travelers continues a decade-long trend in which fewer and fewer travel by air during Thanksgiving, according the AAA news release.

Since 2000, the number of Americans traveling by air during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend has dropped 62 percent. AAA attributes this decline to the “stricter airport security, more frequent flight delays, reduced capacity, added surcharges and fees.”

AAA also noted that gasoline prices this year were about 54 cents a gallon cheaper in October when air travelers typically buy their Thanksgiving tickets. Most will not change their plans to fly rather than drive, even though gas prices have increased, because seat availability is now limited and airline ticket prices have increased as the holiday approaches.

Airline ticket prices overall, however, have decreased 4 percent from last year’s price to an average of $170 per roundtrip ticket, according to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index.

Car rental rates are also down 3 percent from last year to an average of $44 per day for a mid-sized car. Rates for AAA Three Diamond lodgings are expected to be 11 percent less than last year for an average of $128 per night, with AAA Two Diamond lodgings down 13 percent to an average of $92 a night.

The complete AAA / IHS Global Insight 2009 Thanksgiving holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.