New poll: McCain and Obama statistically tied in Va. *Take our reader poll on debate.

While a new poll shows presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain virtually tied in Virginia, it’s another story in Southside.

The poll, which has a 4-point margin of error, shows McCain is favored 47 percent to 44 for Obama across the state, but Lynchburg-Southside voters give McCain a solid 49 to 41 percent lead.

J. Brad Coker, director of Mason-Dixon Polling, said while conservative Southside voters may agree with Obama on the economy, they don’t support his foreign policy or social views.

“I have my doubts he can put together the Warner-Kaine coalition to win,” Coker said. “I’m not sure you can win one region and carry Virginia.”

Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for McCain, said the Republican candidate’s campaign is always happy to find areas where it is leading – like Southside.

“This shows that John McCain and Sarah Palin’s message of reform is resonating with voters in those areas,” Gitcho said.

She said voters in this part of Virginia are concerned about issues such as tax cuts and supporting a strong national defense, and see McCain better able to handle those issues.

Obama’s camp said two recent polls have McCain up, and two have the Illinois senator in the lead.

“What it points to is the race will be very close. What it shows is every vote will matter,” Kevin Griffis, Obama’s Virginia press secretary, said Wednesday.

Griffis said some parts of Southside will be difficult for Obama, but in parts where people have lost jobs because of “Bush-McCain” economic policies, the Democrat will do better. He said the campaign’s “army of volunteers” and newly registered voters will make the difference.

The head of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said the state is up for grabs.

“About half (the polls) have McCain up in Virginia, half have Obama up, and usually it’s within the margin of error,” political analyst Larry Sabato said. “Polling is not good enough to tell us more than that.”

Obama only leads in voter-rich Northern Virginia, but by a solid 20-point advantage. He’s behind in the rest of the state, according to the Mason-Dixon poll, which was conducted Sept. 17-22 and included responses from 625 likely voters.

Coker said the pattern that white voters might mislead pollsters is evident.

The poll found 8 percent of voters who were not sure who they would support, he said. Coker said whites make up 75 percent of this voting group and that could give McCain 6 more points, compared to 2 for Obama.

Black voters are expected to come out in record numbers this year, but Coker thinks that factor could be offset by higher numbers across the state.

“Everybody and his uncle is going to vote this year,” he said.

The Mason-Dixon poll also includes responses from likely voters on the U.S. Senate race between former Virginia Govs. Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore.

Warner, a Democrat, holds a huge lead against Gilmore, a Republican, the poll shows.

Warner is up by a whopping 61 percent to 28 percent for Gilmore. Eleven percent of those polled were undecided.

Lynchburg-Southside voters back Warner 59 percent to 30 percent for Gilmore, according to the poll.

“I don’t see how Gilmore is going to pull this out unless Warner makes a serious error in judgment,” Coker said.

About a third of Republicans back Warner to replace Sen. John Warner, who is retiring.

Mark Warner is ahead in every part of Virginia and is ahead in all age groups, as well as among men, women, black voters and white voters.

Gilmore does have a majority of the Republican vote, 51 percent, the poll indicates.

Contact Bernard Baker at or at (434) 791-7986.