Three Va. figures probably long shots

These days Virginia looks like the mother of vice presidents.

But it could be a long shot for one to surpass such prospects as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The state’s top three Democrats—Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, U.S. Sen. Jim Webb, and former Gov. Mark R. Warner, the favorite for an open U.S. Senate seat—are mentioned by political handicappers as possible running mates for Sen. Barack Obama.

At least publicly, none in the trio put much stock in their chances. Besides, even being considered is problematic for all three as well as for a state party that has steadily advanced since 2001.

However, that Kaine, Webb and Warner are being talked up is another sign that Virginia—usually Republican in presidential years—is now in play, say home-state Democrats.

“With a governor, a senator and a senator in-waiting under consideration is as strong a signal that you possibly can send that Virginia is tier one,“ said Del. Robert H. Brink, D-Arlington.

Beyond the flattery are stark realities. The field of potential vice presidents is large. Among those mentioned yesterday were Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano. Others include New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia.

“This is rank speculation,“ said Larry J. Sabato, University of Virginia political analyst. “It’s fun, but that’s all it is.“

Assuming Democrats win this fall, a vice president-elect Kaine, who backed Obama early and is one of his national co-chairmen, would have to surrender the governorship to Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling.

Bolling could then run as an incumbent in 2009, giving him a leg up over the Democratic nominee.

Not to mention, Kaine would be the first Virginia governor to not complete his term since the single four-year term was adopted in 1852, Sabato said.

“People would be proud that their governor would be selected, but Democrats would be apoplectic in another sense,“ said Sabato.

Kaine said earlier this week it’s “extremely unlikely” he would be asked by Obama to run as vice president.

But Kaine added, “I don’t say no to the president. I think he’s going to be president. I think it would be hard to say no, but I don’t spend that much time thinking about it.“

Kaine and Obama are close personally, but Kaine doesn’t add much to Obama where he needs it, Sabato said, including experience in Washington and military and foreign policy matters.

Webb, a freshman senator narrowly elected in 2006, could add to the Democratic ticket the military and diplomatic credentials Obama lacks.

“It wouldn’t surprise me one bit,“ said Jim Leaman, president of the 200,000-member AFL-CIO.

Under that scenario, Kaine would appoint an interim senator, assuring that Democrats hold the seat temporarily. An election would be held concurrent with the 2009 gubernatorial contest.

Warner’s ascension to the No. 2 spot could be less troublesome for Virginia Democrats and pose more problems for state Republicans.

Sabato said Warner’s Senate opponent, former Gov. Jim Gilmore, is perceived by Democrats as so weak that they could substitute another candidate and still win handily.

Like Kaine, Sabato said, Warner would not add any military or diplomatic experience to the ticket. But his approval rating is high in Virginia, likely a battleground state for the first time in decades.

Del. Christopher B. Saxman, R-Staunton, head of the McCain effort in Virginia, said pairing Warner with Obama could hurt McCain here.

“I think if Mark Warner is on the ticket, that’s more of a problem for us than Tim Kaine or Jim Webb,“ said Saxman.

Obama has asked a three-person team, including Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, to vet vice presidential prospects, The Associated Press reported yesterday.

The daughter of President John F. Kennedy, she will work with two Democratic insiders: Jim Johnson, the former head of mortgage giant Fannie Mae, and former Deputy U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder.